Phoenix.BloggersPub

Brandon Webb, RHP (11-4, 2.64)

Mark Prior, RHP (0-4, 6.60)

After all the speculation, ideas, rumours, hopes and fears, there’s both good news and bad news at the trade deadline:
Bad: Arizona didn’t make any trades
Good: Arizona didn’t make any trades
Not with a bang. Not even a whimper. The trade-deadline passed at 1pm today, and Arizona was simply…not involved. Unless the deal has been made, and not announced yet for some reason, in which case I’m about to look very, very foolish… [Actually, since the SportsBlogs network died almost exactly at 1pm, this non-event is probably for the best!]

Shawn Green stays here. Luis Gonzalez stays here. Carlos Quentin will be left picking scraps up from the line-up card. However, Carlos Quentin stays here, as do Drew, Jackson and all our other prospects. And I think some credit is due for that, especially given our situation. 1.5 games off the division lead, in the ‘old days’, the pressure would doubtless have been on to “win this year”, with a trade being made to push Arizona over the top. Instead, we’re standing firm: let the cards for 2006 fall where they may [and we still have a 34.9% chance of making the post-season, according to Baseball Prospectus], but we’ll be stronger for next year as a result of this restraint.

And just for the record, the final results of the poll, “Which D’back is most likely to be gone by the trade deadline?”, were as follows:

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Record: 53-51. Change on last season: +3

“Last night, he threw me a plethora of sliders - that’s a Berkeley word right there”
    Carlos Quentin on facing Brad Lidge

Yes, kids, the word of the day is “plethora”. It’s from Medieval Latin, originating from the Greek plEthOra, from plEthein to be full. It also means a bodily condition characterized by an excess of blood and marked by turgescence and a florid complexion, but is generally used to mean a profusion or abundance. Don’t say we’re never educational here at the SnakePit. This entry is brought to you by the number 7 and the letter Q.

There’s something particularly satisfying about swiping a win away from the Rocket. I’ve had a grudge against him since he unjustifiably beat the Big Unit out for the 2004 Cy Young, simply because of a better W/L record. So, seeing his bullpen cough up a hairball and yank the victory carpet out from under him today, was very pleasant, giving us the series and narrowing the gap in the NL West.

Not that it looked particularly likely early on. My sole glimpse of the first eight and a half innings, was seeing Miguel Batista balk home a run, with the pitcher at the plate, which is a pretty inexcusable error. Things got worse from there, and when we entered the eighth inning, 5-1 down, things looked pretty bleak for Arizona.

However, an RBI single by Davanon, and a three-run homer by Eric Byrnes tied the game up. Conor Jackson - not to be outdone by Carlos Quentin’s pinch-hit heroics in the first game of the series - then smacked a two-run shot in the ninth to give us our first lead. [While we still only accepted one base on balls, I figure that scoring seven runs on seven hits and a walk shows impressive efficiency, at least]

Jorge Julio “Jeld” the Astros, though it was far from comfortable, with one run allowed, the tying run on second base, and Byrnes then having to seriously run down the third out in deep right-center. It was such a tough play he even forgot to dive or crash headfirst into the wall. He did however, high-five the other players and was clearly very, very happy: Julio, on the other hand, looked like he had just been traded to the Hizbollah Yankee-Haters.

With just seven hits to go around, not much to speak about there (nobody had more than one). Though Quentin did get his first major-league drilling, after racking up a ton of them in the minors. Mind you, Batista drilled three Houston players, doubling his total for the season. Naturally, the Astros hit included HBP machine, Craig Biggio, so perhaps today was in the nature of the plunking torch being passed from one generation to another.

Not a great outing for Miggy: eight hits, one walk, plus the three hit batters and the balk mentioned earlier, leading to four earned runs over six innings. Choate followed, and allowed an earned run for the third start in a row. He was a bit unlucky, as it was initially an infield hit, that came around to score on a walk, a failed fielder’s choice and a suicide squeeze, but he’s been plenty flakey lately. Here’s his line since July 9:
Choate: 3 IP, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K, 5 ER, 15.00 ERA

Opponents are now hitting .341 off Choate. And he’s got competition too, on the LOOGY front. Doug Slaten has pitched five innings in Tucson, with two hits, no runs and eight K’s, after his promotion from Tennessee, where he had an ERA of 1.88 over 40 games… Following Randy, Medders and Pena - the latter getting his third win - combined to face six batters and retired five, without any further runs being scored, before it was Julio time.

Thanks to singaporedbacksfan (for posting the lineup and staying up late - seeing the game start on Monday!), suitsmetoATnT and his amazing headlines, unnamedDBacksfan, flyingdutchman, andrewinnewyork and nihil67 for their comments. That turned out to be a much more satisfactory outcome for the Diamondbacks than I expected - and how it seemed it was going to be, through the first three-quarters of the game.

Heroes and Villains
Series 33: vs. Houston, on road

Pena: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 K, 2 wins!
Byrnes: 3-for-8, 3 RBI, game-saving catch
Jackson: 4-for-11, 4 RBI
————————–
Julio: 1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER
Drew: 2-for-12, 5 K
Choate: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 2 ER

All hail Tony Pena, who has claimed three victories in his last three outings, for five innings of work. And two would have counted for saves in addition, if only he’d thought to split the innings, and pitch as Tony Pena and Adriano Rosario. However, the victory in today’s game belongs as much to Eric Byrnes who turned a three-run deficit into a tied game with one swing, and then caught the game-tying run for the last out. Jackson also deserves credit for losing his pinch-hit cherry to a two-run homer.

A tap on the wrist for Julio, who did not exactly look overwhelming during his appearance today, and was a Byrnes grab away from blowing his third straight save. Drew was the poster child this series, for a K/BB ratio which sat at a meaty 29:3, though he’s young yet, and will hopefully learn. Choate has already been discussed: he’s teetering on the edge of reclaiming the “Choate the Choke” label, as what use is a LOOGY who can’t retire lefties?

And with the Padres losing, and the Giants dropping their seventh in a row, the D’backs are now just 1.5 games back, both of the Padres and in the wild-card race. The good news in the latter is, only five NL teams have a record better than .500 - currently, the standings are:

1. Cincinnati: 55-50
2. Arizona: 53-51 (1.5 back)
3. San Francisco: 51-54 (4)
4. Colorado: 50-54 (4.5)
5. Milwaukee + LA: 50-55 (5)

But it’s on to Chicago, where we should be hoping at least to split the series, if not take three of four from the Cubs, who have been pretty dismal this season. Meanewhile, San Diego will be taking on Houston and Cincinnati host the Dodgers, though those series don’t start until Tuesday. So, all being well, we’ll be just one game back then - though standing between us and that is the small matter of Mark Prior… But more on that tomorrow!

Miguel Batista, RHP (9-5, 4.65)

Roger Clemens, RHP (2-4, 2.45)

Miguel Batista comes back from burying his granny, and gets tossed in at the deep end, merely facing the active pitcher with most career wins and strikeouts. Welcome back, Miggy. Still, Clemens this year has been beaten more times than he’s won, so he may not quite be the unstoppable force - or worth the insane half-year contract the Astros handed him. Of course it doesn’t help that Houston are scoring less than three runs a game when the Rocket is on the mound, and so his four losses have involved a grand total of seven earned runs.

Batista’s performance last time - notably the three-run first - deserves some slack, given the circumstances. Despite that, he’s been going well over the past month or so: in six starts, he’s 3-0, and his July ERA still sits at a decent 3.09. It seems less likely that he’ll be traded away, and I suspect he may end up remaining our #2 down the stretch run towards the playoffs. So far, he has alternated great months (May: 2.66 ERA; July 3.09) and sucky ones (Apr: 6.33; June: 7.76), so maybe we should bench him for August, just to be safe…

An 11am start, Arizona time, so there will likely not be much postage from me - hence this very early (or very late, depending how you look at it!) thread creation. I will be enjoying the usual Sunday lie-in with Mrs. SnakePit, and we intend to watch the movie version of Phantom of the Opera, having seen it live earlier this week in Vegas. I’m a little more optimistic for the finale than I was for Saturday, but thoughts will perhaps be more deal- than game-oriented. Josh Byrnes puts the trade chances at “50-50. I don’t think it’s a certainty, but we have enough things out there to where it’s a possibility.” We shall see…

Record: 52-51. Change on last season: +3

First things first. Interesting article over at Beyond the Boxscore, where Marc analyzes the defensive play of infielders so far this season. Before I give the link, and discuss the findings for our D’backs, see if you can arrange the following, in order for defensive value, as measured by Runs Above Average. Answer to follow, later in this entry:

• 1B Conor Jackson
• 2B Orlando Hudson
• SS Craig Counsell
• 3B Chad Tracy

Far better to think about than the walkless, witless performance put up by the Diamondbacks in Houston today. We mustered six baserunners the entire game, and it took Oswalt and Lidge just 110 pitches to mow the Diamondbacks down nine times. Byrnes has two hits in the lead-off spot: Snyder had two hits, both out extra-base knocks, and drove in the only run with a solo homer in the fifth.

This was the first time that the three FutureBacks - Quentin, Drew and Jackson - had all been in the starting lineup together, but it was not an auspicious day for them. Together, they went a combined 1-for-11, with five K’s - Jackson notched three of them, while Quentin was the only one to get a hit. He also provided the scariest moment, cartwheeling over after catching a fly-ball. He said:

About the only pleasant aspect to proceedings was a solid performance from Juan Cruz, who went seven innings, and allowed three earned runs. He gave up five hits and three walks, hit a batter, and struck out eight while throwing 110 pitches - the last two were both season-highs. It’s the first time he’s gone past 100 pitches, though his walks still remain an area of concern.

Thanks to ASUJon, suitsmetoATnT, icecoldmo and flyingdutchman for their comments, though you would have missed entire Diamondback innings if you’d blinked. flyingdutchman floated the D’backs trading for Zito; but this, like all the other trade rumours seems to have little real backing to it. Remember the frantic swirling around two years ago, when Johnson + Finley trades were ripping about? This year seems like a dead-calm millpond in comparison.

Reports do say that Shawn Green “expects to be traded”, but any deal is under a tighter veil of secrecy than the Manhattan project. However, it is worth nothing that it is not impossible that Green could be dealt after Monday. He’d just need to go through waivers - or, indeed, he may already have done so, in the super-secretive world of MLB player contracts. We’ll see…

And the answer to the puzzle posed earlier - rank our infielders by their defensive value - is as follows.

1. SS Craig Counsell: +3.98 (ranked 10th of 30)
2. 3B Chad Tracy: +3.70 (9/28)
3. 1B Conor Jackson: +3.38 (13/35)
4. 2B Orlando Hudson: -4.71 (21/30)

Hmm… One of these is not like the others… Now, I know we’ve all been disappointed in Hudson’s performance with the glove, but this is quite yick-worthy. On the other hand, both Jackson and Tracy have, by this measure at least, acquitted themselves pretty well with the leather this year. The full article can be found here.

Juan Cruz, RHP (3-5, 4.95)

Roy Oswalt, RHP (7-7, 3.35)

After last night’s marathon game, both bullpens will be depleted: the Astros possibly a little more, since they threw six innings, while Arizona only had five to get through [Pena and Lyon, with two innings each, will probably be the only ones totally unavailable for Arizona today]. Houston were forced into using Pettitte as a spot reliever, since it was his day for a side session anyway. Therefore, it would make sense to take a few pitches and get rid of Oswalt early. I say that, in bold, because we have managed three walks, total, over the past twenty-nine innings. This is not good.

Today, we face Oswalt, who might seem like a tough cookie. However, he only has two wins in his past eleven starts, though his record includes outings like a complete game against the Cubs, where he allowed one run and still took the loss. He has been pretty consistent though, with ERAs for May-July of 3.49, 3.72 and 3.67, so the odds remain that we’re not going to have much to play with here.

Cruz will need to be on his best today. I’m thinking this, more in hope than expectation, because he hasn’t lasted more than five innings since coming back off the DL, and has a 7.41 ERA in the four starts made to date. [Oddly, his best start came at Coors Field against the Rockies] That won’t get the job done, needless to say, and I can’t say I am feeling particularly optimistic. However, if Quentin the Magic Rookie plays for the whole game, who can say what might happen?

Record: 52-50. Change on last season: +4

“Is there any point to which you would wish to draw my attention?”
“To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.”
“The dog did nothing in the night-time.”
“That was the curious incident,” remarked Sherlock Holmes.
    Sir Arthur Conan Doyle in “Silver Blaze”

Three times, Arizona took the lead. Three times, Houston came back to tie the game - though never taking the lead themselves. But finally, in the eleventh inning, Luis Gonzalez double to lead off, and came home on a sacrifice fly by J-strada. Then, Tony Pena did another of his, by now almost standard, double-barrelled win/save outings, first removing the head and then destroying the brain of the Thing From Texas That Wouldn’t Die.

He got the victory for his scoreless tenth inning, and was then left in for the eleventh - in the latter he did allow a single to rookie Luke Scott, who completed his “reverse natural” cycle [Homer, triple, double, single - in that order] in only his 45th major-league game. However, the question that results is similar to the famous one from a Sherlock Holmes story, which leads off this entry: what is significant is what didn’t happen.

Less the dog here, of course, than the closer who did nothing in the night-time. A one-run lead, and Julio hadn’t pitched in three days? Why was he not brought in? Leaving Pena out there was a very, very interesting choice by Melvin: the general opinion in the comments seemed to be that it was the right one though, and it all worked out for the best in the end. But does this mean Jorge Jorrible is no longer the closer of choice? And if so, has some injury been detected, triggering the sudden switch?

As noted, that was the only one of the four leads the Diamondbacks had, which they didn’t blow. They were also up 3-0 in the fourth, 4-3 in the fifth and 7-4 in the seventh, but the Astros just wouldn’t die, even as we pounded out seventeen hits. Again, we left double-digits on base, and we only managed two walks in 49 plate-appearances, both being worked by leadoff man, DaVanon. He does, at least, seem to have developed a decent grasp of what’s required from the position, namely getting on base.

Hudson went 4-for-5, Jackson 3-for-6, and LuGon, Tracy and Drew all had two-hit days. Perhaps the most remarkable at-bat was, however, Carlos Quentin, who came off the bench in the seventh to smack a two-run pinch-hit homer. In just sixteen at-bats, he has four homers, nine RBIs, and is batting .375 and slugging 1.250. There are seventy major-league players with 4+ homers this month; only six have less than sixty at bats; only Carlos has less than forty…

Enrique Gonzalez struggled a bit, but got through six innings (the innings saved from the bullpen could prove critical the rest of the series). He allowed ten hits and a walk, but the only real blow of significance was Scott’s three-run homer that wiped out our first lead of the game. Choate and Medders allowed two earned runs in the seventh, and Lyon blew the third lead in the eighth. However, that was an unearned run thanks to a Drew error, and he also pitched a scoreless ninth to help redeem himself.

Thanks to all those who joined me in the comments - though initially, I was wondering if everyone else had gone to Las Vegas, to the point of asking npineda if he could see the GameDay thread! However, Q’s big blast brought things to life, with William K, npineda, andrewinnewyork and Ben for their presence. Not perhaps the best of performances, but an important one on a day when both San Diego and San Francisco lost, so we’re 1.5 back in the division race. As noted, we can now beat either Oswalt or Clemens to take the series, rather than having to defeat both - that certainly wouldn’t have been a prospect I viewed with much enthusiasm…

Enrique Gonzalez, RHP (3-2, 4.85)

Brandon Backe, RHP (1-1, 4.50)

With Roy Oswalt and Roger Clemens waiting for Arizona on Saturday and Sunday, it becomes almost essential for Arizona to win the series opener against Brandon Backe. He has made just one start since April 13, and lasted only four innings against the Mets on July 22nd. He allowed four walks: something our hitters would do wise to note, given we’ve managed one base on balls over the past eighteen innings. This guy is very, very fragile, and we should take advantage because, as noted, it isn’t going to get any easier.

EnGon takes the mound for Arizona, and his last outing, while not stellar, did give cause for optimism, with a season-high 110 pitch appearance. He allowed three runs over seven innings, on four hits and a walk, while fanning seven. The long-ball hurt him, with two homers, and if he can avoid that today, while still maintaining the same level of performance everywhere else, it should be sufficient to get him the victory.

Record: 51-50. Change on last season: +3

While the opposition’s offense scored a consistent 5-6 runs/game this series, the Diamondbacks’ output declined for the third game in a row. We tore off at a gallop, with solo homers for the ridiculously-hot Luis Gonzalez, and Conor Jackson spotting us to a 2-0 lead with no outs in the second. Lidle then hit Shawn Green with a pitch, and it looked like that might be the start of a war, since Vargas had hit two Phillies in the bottom of the first - including D’backs killer, Utley.

However, Green was caught stealing, and we had only two baserunners after that point: Gonzo added a double (his 529th, tying him for 28th on the career all-time list), and Snyder a single, but the Drew-less offense (Easley got the start instead, though Drew was seen pinch-hitting) all but sputtered to a halt. And just like Wednesday, we showed no patience against Lidle’s slow-pitch offerings either: we got no walks at all, and he required only 95 pitches to get through eight innings, before Gordon came in and completed the series with a 1-2-3 ninth.

Vargas did his best, but was once again the victim of his defense. Chad Tracy’s error in the fourth - his second in consecutive games - give Philadelphia an extra out, and they used it to full effect, Lieberthal’s home-run wiping out the lead. They went ahead the next time around; Utley extended his hitting streak to 27 games, a major-league high for the year, with a single and came around to score. They added two more in the seventh, one off Vargas, the other off Choate. Medders and Aquino tidied up thereafter.

Enthusiasm was pretty limited around the SnakePit, it seemed, but thanks to William K for posting the lineup, and andrewinnewyork, icecoldmo for their comments, as well as a special greeting for the debut of singaporedbacksfan. Shame it wasn’t on a more impressive performance from the D’backs, and as a result of this poor display, we lose our first series since the All-Star break.

Your daily dose of yummy Fangraphs goodness
[Click pic to see full version in new window]
Today: Cheese, but no steak

Results elsewhere during the series, mean that we are in second-place, 2.5 games behind the Padres and also the wild-card leading Reds. Baseball Prospectus puts our post-season chances at 27.8%, though if we were to be chasing anyone, I’d rather it was San Diego. In the last 41 games of the season, we play them thirteen times, as many times as we play the Rockies and Dodgers combined, all the rest of the way. That should go some way to ensuring that our fate, at least, is in our own hands.

Heroes and Zeroes
Series 32: vs Phillies, on road

L.Gonzalez: 5-for-11, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB
Vargas: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 ER, 8 K
Pena: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 2 K, Win
—————————–
Webb: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 R, 4 ER
Tracy: 3-for-13, 2 errors
Julio: 1 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, BS

Luis Gonzalez is at the top of the board, though largely because there were no really outstanding performances. Not that 5-for-11 isn’t good, but it’s more a second- or third-place hero level of output. However, you can’t argue that he is hot: batting over .400 (31-for-77) this month, leading the team in hits, doubles - an NL-best thirteen - and RBIs, as well as tied for HR. Is it, as icecoldmo hinted, the competition from Quentin? Elsewhere, Vargas was the victim of poor defense, but Tony Pena stepped up, effectively getting the win and the save in the series opener.

If Julio blows many more save opportunities, then Pena could find himself promoted to the closer’s role pretty quickly. This may be the “nothing” it’s claimed to be, but I seem to recall Valverde’s fall from grace started with a spell of overuse, followed by a couple of blown saves… Tracy’s batwork was mediocre, it was his glovework that really hurt, as his errors helped lead to four unearned runs. And Webb makes a rare appearance in the Zeroes this season, after one of his very infrequent poor performances.

Dead quiet on the trade whisper front, with almost nothing of any importance circulating involving the D’backs. This doesn’t mean nothing is happening - the Hernandez-Julio trade appeared out of nowhere, as you may recall - but it does seem to suggest that we may end up not really doing much over the remaining days before the deadline. There may be some minor shuffling around (perhaps trading a reliever or two, for whom the market is bordering on insane), but I think the chances of major trades seem to be dwindling.

Interesting piece over at The Good Phight, where they look at the Curt Schilling to AZ trade, six years later. Basically, it seems to have ended up being Schilling for Padilla, more or less - but since neither of those two are with the respective clubs any more [Padilla is now in Texas; Schilling…whatever happened to him? ], it’s one of those trades that becomes almost difficult to analyze from the current perspective. I mean, we’re not talking Karim Garcia + cash for Luis Gonzalez, or half our roster for a slugger with the most powerful checked swing in baseball history…