Phoenix.BloggersPub

Claudio Vargas, RHP (11-10, 4.86)

Jonathan Sanchez, LHP (3-0, 5.29)

Through this entire season, the pitchers we’ve done best against have often been those who you think would be really tough on Arizona. And conversely - as last night - the ones I’ve thought we’d torch like a badly-wired Chinese Christmas tree, have often given us severe problems. Therefore, we present the dark horse 2006 Rookie of the Year candidate, Jonathan Sanchez, who has never been beaten in his major-league career. Please do not allow yourself to be distracted by his last outing (eight earned runs in two innings), if we can squib out a couple of infield hits, I’ll be happy. Any Arizona Diamondback hitters should please stop reading here.

…

They gone? Good. Okay, the reality is, this is the kind of hitter, on whom we should absolutely tee off. If the Brewers can score eight runs off him, we should be able to match that. He was pretty damn good out of the bullpen: he came up May 28, but didn’t concede his first earned run until July 8th, in his fifteenth appearance and thirteenth inning. When he was sent down at the end of July, he had an ERA of 1.37 in 19.2 innings, but called back up into the rotation this month, the results have been less flattering: three starts, never finished the sixth, 13 runs in 12.1 innings, on 16 hits and seven walks. Our batters should be queueing up for this one, though he has struck out 13.

We send up Claudio Vargas. It seems like it was only yesterday he pitched, but perhaps that’s connected to the recurrent nightmare I have, where our rotation consists of 5 x him. That’ll wake you up in a cold sweat. However, he was actually pretty good in his last outing, keeping the Dodgers off the board until Drew’s homer in the seventh. Meanwhile, we were shut-out, so he got a tough loss, the first time this year he’s picked up an L which giving up less than three runs. Usually, when he’s good, he wins: in his eleven victories this year, he’s pitched 68.2 innings, allowing just 14 earned runs for an ERA in them of just 1.83.

Crap, just realised it was a 12:35pm start, not 1:05. Post! Quickly!

Record: 74-83. Change on last season: +1
Rookies in starting lineup: 4

Bit of a good news/bad news game last night. Good news: Carpenter got roughed up. Bad news: Webb didn’t win. Good news: Webb didn’t lose either. Bad news: Melvin yanked him after throwing only 86 pitches. Good news: he’s overtaken Carpenter in the ERA race. Bad news: Carpenter getting to start on Sunday took another step nearer; the Cardinals lost again and saw their lead over the Astros shrink to 1.5 games. All told, I think we have to give the edge to Webb in today’s results, but the recent lack of W’s for Webb (only three in his last eight starts) is turning what should have been a canter into a slog.

The failures of Carpenter and Webb mean that no NL pitcher will end the year with more than 17 wins, and it is still possible that this could lead voters to go for a closer: Hoffman (44 saves, 1.92 ERA) or Wagner (39, 2.18) are the likely contenders. However, both have blown five saves, which is really quite a lot: when Gagne won in 2003, he was perfect in 55 opportunities. And he’s the only closer to have received the award, in either league, since Eckersley for the A’s in 1992.

As a dark horse, I wouldn’t count out Carlos Zambrano entirely, since he has won almost a quarter of the Cubs entire total, and currently does have the best record at 16-6. He has 28 more K’s than Webb, in 24 less innings, although his ERA (3.43) is significantly higher, and he doesn’t have a single complete game to his name. But if he wins his last start, to go to 17-6, Webb loses, dropping to 16-8, and the ERA gap narrows significantly too, then he could see significant votes heading his way.

But let’s assume it comes down to Carpenter and Webb. There is no way Carpenter can now have a better W/L record: if he pitches Sunday and wins, and Webb loses, they’ll both be at 16-8. The good news is, St. Louis play first on Sunday (11:15 am, Arizona time), so we should be able to go into the game with a pretty good idea of how Webb must perform to stay ahead. Here is what Webb needs to do to keep the lead in ERA, for a variety of different scenarios regarding Carpenter.

• Carpenter does not pitch, or his ERA stays at 3.09
  Webb pitches one inning: five ER or less
  Webb pitches two-five innings: six ER or less
  Webb pitches six-eight innings: seven ER or less
  Webb pitches nine innings: eight ER or less
• Carpenter throws a complete game shutout: ERA drops to 2.97
  Webb pitches one-two innings: two ER or less
  Webb pitches three-five innings: three ER or less
  Webb pitches six-eight innings: four ER or less
  Webb pitches nine innings: five ER or less
• Carpenter has a quality start (6 IP, 3 ER): ERA rises to 3.12
  Webb pitches one-two innings: six ER or less
  Webb pitches three-five innings: seven ER or less
  Webb pitches six-eight innings: seven ER or less
  Webb pitches nine innings: nine ER or less

I guess we should also talk about Melvin’s decision to pull Webb after 86 pitches in a tied game, rather than letting him go out again and try to get the win. He’s already come in for much criticism on this front, and I can see how it’s justified. Our best chance of winning the game was certainly with a relatively-fresh Brandon Webb out there, rather than rolling the dice with our randomly-performing bullpen. Sure, he’d just lost the lead in the eighth, but that was largely because Chad Tracy tied the franchise record with his 26th error of the season, and Callaspo then added a second error later that same inning.

BoMel’s justification went “I can’t run him out there after that. I mean, he’s in a no-win [ninth] inning. He did his job and I wasn’t going to put him in a position to take a loss.” Emphasis added, because that’s not actually accurate; sure, we hadn’t scored in the ninth, but Webb would still have won the game if we’d scored in the tenth. However, by that stage, Carpenter’s loss was already in the books, and you could certainly argue that not losing had become more important than winning for Webb.

Webb played the party line, saying, “I appreciate it, but it’s sometimes tough to let somebody else go out there when you feel good and have a low pitch count. But we talked about it and I pretty much agree.” He certainly seemed less happy after leaving the game, though that may have been because he’d also just seen his lead evaporate in the eighth without the Giants getting a hit. Tracy’s error allowed Feliz to reach; a pinch-runner was then bunted to second, reached third on a wild-pitch, and came home when Callaspo’s throw on a ground-ball bounced past Snyder.

Worse was to follow in the ninth. Choate retired the first batter he faced, but hit Linden with a pitch. Enter Lyon, who delivered a 1-0 changeup over the plate, which Moises Alou duly dispatched into the bleachers in left, for a walk-off home run. Chalk up another late-inning loss for Arizona, though at least it was Choate who got tagged with it, not Webb. But the offense, or lack thereof, played their part: the only man to get more than one hit, off the man described by AZ SnakePit as a “Free Agent Bust”, was…Brandon Webb.

However, the four rookies we sent out did still play their part: they each got a hit, and together, scored and drove in all our runs. Well, when I say “all”, I guess I mean “both”. That came in the fifth when Jackson single to lead off, and one out later, Quentin homered - like Alou subsequently, a two-run shot to left on a 1-0 count. The [insert marketing name for rookies here] went 4-for-16 with 2 runs and 2 RBI, which again compares favourably with the 2-for-15, no runs and no RBI, returned by the veteran position players last night. Not one walk for anyone though.

Thanks to William K, VIII, suitsmetoATnT, Diamondhacks and trevjohnson for their particiapation during another spineless outing for our offense. It was our sixth defeat in nine games on this road-trip, and in all of those losses, we’ve scored two runs or less. That’s despite getting decent outings from our starters during that time; overall, we’ve conceded only a total of 31 runs in those nine contests, which is the same as we’ve scored. With moderate offense, we could easily be 7-2 on our California tour, rather than 3-6.

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Today: Webb + Cy Young: No Decision

The striking similarity in the shape of the above to Sunday’s graph is, I’m sure, purely coincidental… Trevjohnson suggests Joe Girardi as a possible managerial candidate for next year - looks likely he won’t be with the Marlins. Certainly, what he has done in Florida suggests he would be an ideal candidate to manage our youthful team in 2007. Unfortunately, I suspect he will not be looking for employment by the time Arizona fires Melvin, which I (probably optimistically) predict will take place around the All-Star break next year. I imagine every organization on a limited budget will probably want to hire Joe, given the Marlins Miracle of 2006.

Quick turnaround here, since it’s an afternoon game today in San Francisco. After the disappointing result from last night, a win becomes almost essential if we’re to pass the Giants in the standings by the end of the year. Preview and GameDay Thread for that one to follow around 1pm, AZ time.

A sad day for Huntington Beach, and it’s backpackers, surfers, and explorers:
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/homepage/abox/article_1279542.php
Quote from article:
HUNTINGTON BEACH –The former Huntington Beach Hostel – a haven for surfers and international travelers seeking low-cost rooms close to the beach – has sold for $1.8 million.
The new owner was not disclosed Monday.
“It won’t be the international hostel anymore, but we […]

Our last dinner at Delux was once again excellent and satisfying.

Credit: Mark Swanson

Thank God Stereogum has time to track down all things music on the interweb else I might have overlooked Jeremy Enigk’s in-studio performance on AOL’s the Interface.

Enigk, whose first solo album in 10 years, World Waits, I…

Does an article about aging Cuban cigars explain why I don’t usually care for Cuban cigars?

The La Aurora Sungrown Maduro “Belicoso” was an enjoyable cigar, but I don’t think I’d get it again based on the other three I had.

Brandon Webb, RHP (16-7, 2.95)

Matt Morris, RHP (10-15, 5.09)

A win tonight, would tie us with the Giants in the race for…well, while third in the division might not seem like a major prize, I think we’d probably have been happy with that before the start of the season. The final few games look like they’re going to see us, Colorado and San Francisco tussling gently for the minor places in the NL West. I like the fact that, top-to-bottom, the West has the smallest differential of any division in baseball: only ten games. The next closest is the AL West at 14.5, and they only have four teams. Ten games back would be good enough to get you second in both Eastern divisions.

Got to feel good about our chances tonight, as Cy Young contender takes on Free Agent Bust. Matt Morris described his last outing as “pathetic”, but the term could probably have been applied to a good number of his appearances this season: in 32 starts, he’s allowed five or more earned runs twelve times. The last one was a whopper, however: nine earned runs in 4.1 innings. “Well done! You must get up very early.” Here’s to that continuing, and if Webb can avoid the one bad inning which has plagued him recently, he should march on to his 17th win. Sadly, I’ll be at IZW tonight, so will be unable to watch or partake in the fun.

Tonight also sees matching starts by Webb and Carpenter in the Cy Young race. Carpenter will attempt to rescue the slumping Cardinals in San Diego, since the NL Central leaders have now lost six in a row. They’ve seen their lead over Houston shrink from 8.5 to 2.5 games in a week, and that could have an impact on Webb’s chances. It was generally thought that Carpenter would skip his last start of the season, so as to be ready for Game 1 of the playoffs. But, at the moment, it is still not impossible the Cardinals may need to win on Sunday; if that’s the case, I imagine they’ll send Carpenter out.

Record: 74-82. Change on last season: +2
Rookies in starting lineup: 4

I’ve waited four years to use that headline. Four years! Well, if we can’t make the playoffs ourselves, I guess the next best thing is making sure the Giants don’t make it either. Our victory over San Francisco ensured that their streak without a World Series victory runs to 54 years. Next target: relegate them to fourth place for the year. That seems an eminently achievable aim, the way they’re currently playing (one win in ten games). Hell, the Rockies could well overtake them before the end of Sunday.

Enough gloating (though you can never really have enough schadenfreude over the futile struggles of Barry Bonds to get a ring for his bloated fingers). This was a fine, all-round performance from the Diamondbacks, and one that offers me great hope for next season, given the strong results obtained from the “official” rookies, as well as the “non-rookie but still damn young” Edgar Gonzalez. It’s ironic that EdGon - who couldn’t buy a win as a starter these past three years, until last week - was the man to finally end the undefeated streak of Jason Schmidt.

Seven solid innings from him. I was listening to Bob Melvin on the radio this afternoon, and he was saying that while he used to think EdGon might benefit from a change in scenery, his opinion is rapidly changing. I don’t expect an off-season trade, and would not be surprised if he was our #4 starter come Opening Day next year. As a starter, his ERA is now exactly three in his five outings, which is only .05 worse than a certain Mr. B. Webb, and is more than a run better than anyone else we’ve tried in the role this year.

About the only slightly worrying aspect was three walks, which is very high for someone like EdGon. He doesn’t have overwhelming power, so hitting his locations is crucial, and he seemed to have some problems doing that occasionally. The fifth was the classic example: after getting the first two out, he allowed a double to Schmidt, then his focus wavered, and he walked the next two hitters to load the bases. However, a masterful strikeout of Sweeney ended the threat, and the only damage all night was the homer to Durham - that’s three starts now, and the four runs EnGon has allowed, have all come on solo home-runs. Chance or an ongoing issue?

The other delightful facet was the great performances from the Buzztails [or whatever you want to call the upcoming members of the roster!] Montero broke his zero in no uncertain fashion, going 3-for-4, almost getting the first home-run of his career too - only the high wall in right-field stopped him. Tracy had two hits, and Conor Jackson delivered the crucial blow: a three-run homer in the fourth which gave the Diamondbacks the lead for good. Eric Byrnes hit his 24th homer, but it was not a good night overall for the “vets”: Byrnes, Counsell and Luis Gonzalez were a combined 2-for-14. Counsell is now hitting .135 [7-for-52] since coming back from injury.

EdGon left after seven innings: at only 93 pitches, he could probably have gone one more, but he’d done all we could have hoped for, and this kind of outing can only be a massive confidence booster. Not least the way he challenged ‘Roidman and came out on top all three times. After he left, Choate and Valverde pitched perfect innings to close things out: thanks to the three runs we scored in the ninth, it wasn’t a save situation for Valverde, but he was warmed up already. Might as well give him a low-pressure outing, as long as he’s still fresh when needed.

Interesting line in the game recap: “The Diamondbacks, along with the Seattle Mariners, are considered the teams most interested in signing Schmidt this winter.” I made that suggestion in-game, but also more in-jest than anything else. As I said in my comment, if we could get him for #2 money, that would be fine, but I think some team will probably still offer Schmidt money and contract length befitting an ace, when he doesn’t seem to have it any more. Of course, I’ve only seen his starts vs. AZ, but 12 earned runs in 20 innings there, for a 5.40 ERA, doesn’t seem too good.

Thanks to William K and, yes, suitsmetoATnT, for their contributions in game last night. We need to go 3-3 over the last six games to match last seasons total, and with two outings from Webb in that time, I’m optimistic we should be able to do it - though probably not much more. Regardless, the win puts the Diamondbacks above my pre-season estimate of 73 victories, so on that basis, everything else is now gravy.

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Today: Adios, Gigantos

Interesting quotes from Miguel Batista:

Refreshingly honest is probably what I’d say there, though I might not agree with everything. I’m reminded of Hunter S. Thompson on the topic of authorship when he said - and pardon my language here, as I quote him - “I’ve always considered writing the most hateful kind of work. I suspect it’s a bit like fucking, which is only fun for amateurs. Old whores don’t do much giggling.” I think the truth goes wider than that; most things are only fun for amateurs. When you get paid to do them, the whole structure shifts significantly, because the power goes to whoever is paying you the money. In an ideal world, everyone would do everything for fun. Though I suspect our sewer system might suffer somewhat from neglect. Capitalism, eh? Can’t live with it, can’t overthrow it and install a proto-Stalinist rule by the proletariat…

 
I don’t know where I’ve been, but today is the first day I have been introduced to the world wide web beauty of mp3 blogs. If any of you knew about these magnificent jewels and you didn’t tell me, you’re off my Christmas card list for good. For, without blogs like 3hive and mp3hugger, how […]