Phoenix.BloggersPub

This next incarnation of the Phoenix Suns promises to be a noticeable departure from the last few seasons.

Gone are the undersized speed demons and their spiritual leader preaching the mantra of “the best defense is a great offense”. Gone too are the lofty expectations of the media and fans which lead our collective eyes to focus (perhaps too much) on the prize.

The new look Suns are bigger, tougher, slower and of course quite a bit older. Its hard to say how they will fare and equally difficult to say if the window has slammed shut or perhaps is still cracked open just a bit.

One the bright side, Amare playing a full season in his natural power forward position with a full summer off to rest and prepare could easily come back and be a legit MVP contender. He knows that his defense needs to improve and he knows that he can defend any 4 in the league (Duncan plays center and don’t try and tell me otherwise).

He will be challenged and motivated and he has shown the discipline and will to improve. With a renewed (really just a new) focus on team defense and an offense that should run more through him, Amare will finally be The Man.

Nash, Hill and that Big Mouth in the middle will hopefully be called on to do much less. With a longer bench those Grey Beards can use the regular season as an extended warm up for the playoffs. None of those guys should average more then 25 mpg until March. 

Backing them up will be a wide assortment of fellas chomping at the bit to prove themselves. Alando Tucker at the 2/3. DJ Strawberry at the 1/2. Barbosa (if he’s still around) can be serviceable running the point in a more structured offense. They will all be fighting for minutes behind Bell who should also be playing less then he has under D’Antoni.

Hopefully, our newly drafted left-handed, second only to Rose, defensive slashing Solvenian sensation can get some solid minutes in a back-up role this year as well. In fact, the Suns success at buying him out of his Tau Ceramica contract could be the deciding factor on Barbosa’s future in purple and orange. With this second round rookie on the roster being called the point guard of the future, the Suns are going to want to play him and that makes Barbosa and his much larger salary expendable.

In the front court the Suns will obviously look to rookie Big Hair Lopez to get significant minutes behind Shaq’s big behind. Beyond that, the Suns are still rather shallow up front. They could re-sign Brian Skinner and/or Sean Marks or go out and find similar type players. I personally, think Marks never got the chance to be an off the bench front court energy player like a Roni Turiaff or Bandon Bass. He’s as talented as either of those guys so I would like to see him back. Skinner is a great shot blocker for his size and plays hard but he’s not as tough as his goatee makes him out to be and he can’t shoot the ball. Between the two, I would take Marks and replace Skinner with Lopez.

That just leaves the wing with Giricek potentially coming back and sharing time with Hill and possibly Diaw. I am a big Gordan fan and hope the Suns can find a way to get him signed. Perhaps with money saved by moving Barbosa.

Diaw remains the enigma. Perhaps more then any player, I am curious to see how his role and performance change under a new coach. We all know about his potential to play the point forward at the 3, 4 or 5 and he’s a very solid defensive player both in the post against bigger guys and on the wings as well. Name for me any other player you saw defend both Shaq (before the trade) and also Tony Parker and every Rudy Gay in between.

Used well, Diaw can easily be worth his weight in croissants…Or he could just end up as soft and flaky as one.

Where does that leave next year’s Suns? They are an underdog team in flux and can exceed expectations which will likely place them at a 4 to 6 seed. Or they could just as easily drop further behind the plethora of great Western Conference teams.

Right now, I am fairly up beat. I compare the Suns to the Cav’s with a lesser version of The Man but a much better supporting cast.

Regardless of potential, I fully expect the team to start slow. They will be incorporating a lot of new, young players into a totally new system. They may very well hover around the 500 mark for the first few months or even worse.

But this Suns team still has a lot of talent. They still have a couple of former MVP’s and a potential future one. By February they should be hitting a stride and roll into the playoffs at least good enough to compete in the first few rounds. For me, that will be good enough for the start of a new Suns era.

By some measures, the Dbacks are better than last year, and they’re in much better position in the standings. As late as last July, AZ was trailing by 4.5 games. Obviously they can’t keep freefalling and expect to win, but the division is shaping up much like 2005 and I’m unconvinced they need to play much better in order to take the West.

What? Diamondhacks is the voice of optimism? We’re doomed. However, there is some merit to his arguments. Now, i am under no illusions over how badly we have been playing of late, and while our overall totals for ERA+ and OPS+ are about the same as last year, the trends, at first glance appears to be of serious concern. Here is the breakdown for the months so far, along with our win-loss record - ignore the last column for the moment, since I’ll get to in a bit:

Grim reading, huh? Now, i don’t think April represents our ‘true’ level of ability. Still, to have only 20 wins over almost two months looks pretty bad. We haven’t been that low since 2004 [we managed only thirteen in July and August combined that year!]. But if you look at the final column, that represents one possible explanation - it contains the number of games we have played each month against our divisional rivals. Over the 59 games from April 28-July 3, only six are against the NL West.

Question is, which is cause and which is effect. Is our record against the NL West so good, because we played them in April when we were ridiculously hot? Or did playing our mediocre divisional rivals make us seem an awful lot better than we are? If it’s the latter, then we are still very much in this thing. As the calendar turns and we head into the second-half of the season, you’ll find that we will be facing the other teams in the NL West a good deal more.

The key is, how well we do in the second half against our divisional rivals. If we can reach the All-Star break still in first, or thereabouts, then 13 of the first 16 back, we play the NL West. All told, in the second-half, 41 of 65 games are versus them. That will decide our fate, even if it’s hard to win your division while losing outside it. I think the last NL team who did were the 1997 Astros, with a 49-50 record outside the Central [the famously-sucky 2005 Padres went 36-35]. Our extra-division record this morning stands at 20-32, and we’d need to win two-thirds of the remaining 36 to even that out, so we’re basically toast there. But the more unbalanced schedule works in our favor, with more games against the division, and the twenty victories already piled up against the West are solid gold.

Here’s another point to ponder when looking at the upcoming calendar, and it’s one that will be very helpful. As previously noted, we have only won five games against “good” teams - ones who now have a winning record. Ouch. Fortunately, after we complete this road trip and then play Milwaukee at home, we won’t be seeing many more of them. In 63 of our last 76 games, we face opponents currently below .500: the only exceptions are single series against the Phillies, Marlins [yeah: again…], Cubs and Cardinals. I don’t think there’s any doubt that the team needs to play better - and in particular, start scoring more runs. However, schedule-wise, the worst is just about over - and we are still in first-place.

Record: 40-40. Pace: 81-81. Change on last season: -5.

On May 21st, Arizona faced the Marlins in Florida, and Ricky Nolasco allowed one run as his team beat the Diamondbacks 3-1 - the defeat dropped our lead over the Dodgers to three games. On June 27th, Arizona faced the Marlins in Florida, and Ricky Nolasco allowed one run as his team beat the Diamondbacks 3-1 - the defeat dropped our lead over the Dodgers to three games.

Of course, there were some differences: Nolasco went one additional frame, allowed a couple more hits and struck out a couple more people. But the difference between then and now is stark. Then, even after the defeat, Arizona were still a robust ten games above .500, and Los Angeles were the only team within single-digits of us. Now, this looks like a team in absolute offensive free-fall - without a clue, without a hope and without a prayer at the plate. We have managed to score just thirteen times over the seven contests on this road-trip so far. Give us one more defeat, and we’ll enter the rarefied territory, of teams who have a sub-.500 record, and still lead their division. We’d only be good enough for fifth in the AL East. Yet if the playoffs began today, we play the Phillies in the NLDS. Any minute now, we’re going to get a tap on the shoulder and turn around to find Ashton Kutcher, telling us we’ve been Punk’d.

Things started off brightly enough. Drew singled, Byrnes followed up with a double, and we had men on second and third with nobody out in the top of the first. However, all we managed to get there was a sacrifice fly by Hudson. That was the end of the Diamondbacks’ scoring - and that was also as many runners as we got into scoring position over the eight innings which followed, none of whom made it past second-base. Snyder was the only batter to reach safely more than once, with a hit and a walk. Young went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. Tracy: 0-for-3 with two strikeouts. Salazar replaced Upton in right, and did no better: 0-for-3 with a strikeout. One walk and a total of ten K’s for Arizona.

Really. I don’t know what to say about this team any more. How many ways are there to point out the obvious failings of a lineup that musters six hits, five of them singles, a solitary walk, and doesn’t get past three runs for the sixteenth time in 22 games? What is there I can meaningfully write? We’re almost half-way through the season and our starting lineup boasted exactly one player - Hudson - with a batting average higher than .255. What do you think is going to happen when they face major-league pitching? Melvin closed the doors and made himself unavailable to the media after the game, for only the second time in his managerial time here. Hard to imagine what he told the players, beyond the blindingly obvious. I’d like to think the hitters already know that they’re not playing well enough. Any suggestions as to what you might tell them?

Meanwhile, the pitching did its best to keep us in the game, which is another recurring theme story over the past couple of weeks. Things weren’t helped by Micah Owings having to leave the game after four innings. Running to cover first on a ground-ball in the fourth, Owings stretched awkwardly and came up lame, having tweaked his quadriceps muscles. He said, “I felt OK to go, and then I came back in [to the dugout], shut it down for a little bit and it stiffened up on me. But I should be fine.” Gonzalez, Rosales and Qualls took over after the fourth, and retired all twelve hitters the Marlins sent up there. However, the three runs Owings allowed, were more than enough to send him to another defeat - like Randy Johnson, he will be winless in the entire month of June.

[Click to enlarge, in new window]
Master of his domain: Conor Jackson, +7.5%
God-emperor of suck: Micah Owings, -16.4%
Dishonorable mention: Chris Young. -11.2%

Awful game, reflected in what was probably the lowest volume Gameday Thread of the season, and who can blame anyone? I’ve run out of things to say that aren’t simply retreading old ground. Thanks to those who did take part: dbacksfan01, dahlian, Muu, kishi, emilylovesthedbacks, 4 Corners Fan, TwinnerA, srdmad, snakecharmer, hotclaws, Augie’s Army, Wimb, soco, Diamondhacks, SunDevilsDen, Elway4Prez and unnamedDBacksfan. My enthusiasm for the team is pretty low right now, and the best thing looming on the horizon is the All-Star break. It’s about the only chance this team has of remaining undefeated for three days in a row.

I really need to come up with a good name for these articles. Any suggestions are gladly welcome. 

Anyway, this week we’ll look at the Diamondbacks’ 21 year old  top offensive prospect Gerardo Parra. Random fact: Parra is exactly one day older than me, being born on May 6th, 1987. All though this has nothing do with the rest of the article, Conor Jackson and James Loney of the Dodgers both share my birthday. Awesome. Getting back to the point. As usual,  I’m going to  look into the statistical track record of Gerardo Parra, as well as provide some insight into what kind of player I think he will become in the future

Gerardo Parra is a player that I’ve been keeping an eye on since he flat out raked in his 2006 minor league debut.  Since then he’s not only rocketed up the various top prospect lists out there, but he’s also put up some fantastic numbers at a young age. Parra’s presence in the Diamondbacks farm system may have also influenced GM Josh Byrnes’ moves in the last offseason; Moves that saw the team move right fielders Carlos Gonzalez and *insert dead horse picture here*

Gerardo Parra is a not a big guy by baseball standards; MilB.com lists him as 5′11 195 lbs. He hits left handed, which is a godsend considering the  right handed heavy lineup the Dbacks have at the Major League level. Parra is not a home run hitter. He has 15 HRs in his 1095 career ABs. This may be due in part to a mechanical issue, but I don’t expect the guy down the road to start hitting for a ton of power anyway. Parra is more of a contact hitter with a solid on base percentage. However, Parra does make up for his lack of power with his speed and base running. He’s by all accounts a very good defensive right fielder and is known for having a very strong throwing arm. He’s also seen some playing time in center field.

Now that we have a basic understanding of what kind of player Gerardo Parra is, let’s look into his statistics and dig deeper.

I can’t seem to find Parra’s full statistics for his 2005 season in the Dominican Summer League. However i do know that he did flat out rake; he hit 385/444/561 and lead the league or was in the top 5 in most offensive statistics. But honestly, i just don’t  how relevant these stats are in regards to evaluating talent. I don’t know the playing conditions and environment  of the league, and I don’t know the quality of the pitching he faced. Any analysis would be pointless in my opinion, though I do think his 2005 season is worth mentioning in passing.

In 2006, Parra made his minor league debut as a 19 year old in the rookie ball Pioneer League. He definately turned heads in his 271 at bats, hitting .328/386/469 with 23 stolen bases. He not only lead the Pioneer league in hits with 89, but also finished ninth in batting average, and was fifth in stolen bases. One positive worth noting is his excellent strike out to walk ratio; striking out just 30 times while walking 25 times. One statistic that I like to point out is Parra’s OPS relative to the rest of the Pioneer league; Parra’s 855 ops vs his team’s .733 OPS, and the league’s .738 OPS. Once you factor in Parra’s youth, his 2006 season becomes even more impressive

2007 started with a promotion to A ball and the Midwest League, and Parra responded well.  In his 444 at bats with the Missoula Ospreys, Parra hit 320/370/435 with a strong K:BB ratio of 30:51. He also stole 24 bases while being caught 8 times. Once again it’s worth noting just how much better Parra’s .805 OPS is in comparison to his team’s(.726) and the rest of the Midwest League(.696).

In late 2007, Parra struggled after being promoted to High-A Visalia, hitting .284/303/382 in 102 ABS with an awful 17:4 K:BB ratio . Once you compare his .685 OPS to the 770 OPS of the California League, his struggles are magnified.

Looking at 2007 all together, Parra finished the year hitting .313/357/425. In 546 ABS he struck out 68 times while walking 34 times. He stole 26 bases and was caught 11 times. He also had an impressive 171 hits, 40 going for extra bases. 2007 was another good year for Parra, even though his overall numbers are dragged down by his time in Visalia.

With his numbers in the last three years, and the flurry of trades that drained a lot of talent out of Arizona’s farm, Parra became Arizona’s top position prospect. It’s at this point I think most Dbacks fans started following Parra. Or maybe they noticed him in his limited action in the Cactus League in spring training. Anyway, Parra’s 2008 season began back in the California League where he had struggled the year before. This time, however, he didn’t struggle.

In 196 ABS with the Visalia Oaks, Parra hit 301/381/413. His plate discpline was excellent, drawing 23 walks while striking out only 31 times. He also stole 12 bases and was caught only 4 times. Once again his 794 OPS is higher than the leagues 740 OPS, and much higher than Visalia’s 677 team OPS.

Parra was then promoted to Double A Mobile in late May. In the 82 ABs since his promotion he’s hit 293/344/415 drawing 5 walks striking out 9 times. He’s also swiped 3 more bags and has been caught once. His numbers are down a bit, but his 759 OPS is still higher than the leagues 744 OPS and Mobile’s team OPS of .700. The rest of the season has yet to play out though, and it’ll be interesting to see his stats at the end of the season.

Looking at his batting splits this year, Parra is hitting RHP(809 OPS) much better than LHP(708 OPS). However in 2006 his platoon splits are reversed; an OPS of 967 against LHP versus an .833 OPS against RHP. This may be something to keep an eye on in the future, but in my opinion, I don’t think Parra will end up being platooned in the long term.

Parra should be ready for the big leagues by the end of the 2009 season. He could get a cup of coffee when the rosters expand to 40 in September, but most likely, he’ll finish the year in AA. He’ll then start 2009 in AAA, and then wait for the call up. Barring injuries or a trade, there’s no place for Parra to play until the Eric Byrnes contract expires.

Just to summarize, Gerardo Parra’s top prospect reputation is well deserved. He’s a good hitter who makes a lot of contact, and should hit over .300 on a regular basis. He doesn’t draw a ton of walks, but he’s hard to strike out, and has good plate discipline. He’s an excellent base runner, and should be good for at least 25+ stolen bases a season in his prime. He has a good defensive reputation, and should only get better with time.  At 21 years of age, Parra is still young, and has plenty of room for potential growth. His one knock as a player, a lack of power, is made up for by the other skills/tools he brings to the table.

So just to wrap this up, I’ll end with my usual questions.  What to do you think of Gerardo Parra? How does he fit in with the current major league roster? When do you think he will he be called up to the big leagues? What’s a good nickname for Parra? I can’t think of one.

Thanks for reading guys.

Micah Owings RHP, 6-6, 5.11

Ricky Nolasco RHP, 7-4, 4.31

Baseball-Reference.com preview [opens in new window]

Just twelve wins in the thirty-five games since we last arrived in Florida on May 20th. The sweep endured then at the hands of the Marlins was perhaps the starting point of the plummet. Is it perhaps possible that a return to the scene of the crime can mark a turnaround? We will need to ask the offense about that: over that time, we have hit a dreadful .217 and scored less than 3.4 runs per game.

We send out the same three pitchers up there as last time: Owings, Webb and Haren. They didn’t play all that badly - ten earned runs in 19.1 innings combined - but all three men ended up with the losses. That’s because the Diamondbacks scored a total of three times over the three games, hitting .179 - 17-for-95. The finale was our first [and only, until Wednesday] shutout of the year, and today’s starter, Nolasco, pitched seven innings of three-hit ball against us the day before that. If it ain’t gonna be fun, at least we can’t do any worse than we did last time we came to Florida…