Phoenix.BloggersPub

Arizona won’t lose today: I can predict this with more confidence than usual, thanks to them not actually being scheduled to play. Somehow, however, I have a sneaking suspicion that the bullpen will still find a way to blow things and take the L. Random discussion and DodgerWatch to follow, with today’s main topic being, “What the hell do we do?” I feel sympathy for Bob Melvin, since it seems that no matter which pitcher he throws up there, suckage follows.

Over the past couple of days, I’ve been trading emails with Jon Weisman of Sports Illustrated and the excellent Dodger Thoughts site, discussing each other’s teams, in advance of the big series between them this weekend - which at least means one losing streak will come to an end!  Here’s our discussion, to shed some light on the nearest rival, whom we’ll be facing over the next three games - many thanks to Jon for the conversation.

Jon: Jim, the Dodgers have been nipping at Arizona’s heels for months now, but haven’t been able to do the leapfrog thing.  In fact, now the Dodgers are back under .500 and entered this week as far out of the NL West lead as they’ve been all summer. How confident are you guys feeling about winning the division?

Jim: According to coolstandings.com, we have a 69.8% chance of winning the division at time of writing, but you’d be hard-pushed to find any Arizona fan who feels anywhere near that confident. Obviously, being in front is the place to be, and every game where the Dodgers don’t catch up helps the Diamondbacks: time is on our side, not yours. That said, I’d be a lot more optimistic if both teams were playing well: it’s hardly comfortable when our team motto is no longer, “Anybody, anytime,” but “Well, at least Los Angeles lost, too.” The question is as much, how confident are you guys feeling about  not  winning it?

Jon: The Phillies series, which reversed the Dodgers’  four-game sweep of them earlier in the month, was as big a morale destroyer as I’ve seen all year.  But Arizona losing three of four during the same period just showed that, though Dodger fans shouldn’t necessarily be confident, they shouldn’t give up either.

Jim:  Both teams made post-deadline moves, acquiring sluggers in Manny Ramirez and Adam Dunn. Why did the Dodgers not put in a claim on Dunn, to stop the Diamondbacks from getting him? And do you think either team has a realistic shot at signing their player long-term?

Jon: The Dodgers haven’t addressed the claiming Dunn question officially; the conclusion we’re left with is that it was a non-issue for them, and/or they didn’t want to deal with the potential  financial and roster implications of having him on the team.  Neither of those answers are particularly satisfying for a lot of us.

The Dodgers will have the ability to sign a top-tier free agent this offseason, so I think they have a shot at Ramirez, but I don’t know if the will is there.  During the brief period in which Alex Rodriguez was a free agent last fall, the Dodgers didn’t position themselves as serious contenders.  I’m not saying the situations are identical, but I don’t tend to think that a Ramirez deal will get done. I have to admit, I hadn’t even gotten to the point of wondering whether Dunn would be with Arizona in 2009.  What do you think?

Jim: While I’d like to see it, I’m doubtful we have enough room to make a competitive offer. It’s a relatively thin free-agent market this year, and it’s probable that we also have to replace Orlando Hudson at second-base. If we hadn’t already committed to paying Eric Byrnes through 2010, I could see us moving Conor Jackson to LF permanently, and making an offer, but I think we’ll take the two draft picks and move on.

Here in Arizona, we expect to see pitching phenom Max Scherzer added to the Diamondbacks roster as part of the September expamsion, though it’s not sure if he will see playing time as a starter or strengthening the bullpen, which has struggled of late. Los Angeles have their own phenom in Clayton Kershaw, but there’s some question as to whether he would be available in the playoffs, or even for the full season. How far do you see him going?

Jon: Part of the rationale behind the Greg Maddux pickup was to allow the Dodgers to stick to their plan of curtailing Kershaw’s innings at about 170. You won’t see Kershaw start in the playoffs even if the Dodgers have the opportunity, and I think he would be used sparingly in relief.  Chad Billingsley, Derek Lowe, Hiroki Kuroda and Maddux would form the postseason rotation.  It might be worth noting that James McDonald is another young starter who could see some action at least out of the bullpen in September.

I’ve noticed several commentators of late leaning toward Arizona because of their big three: Brandon Webb, Dan Haren and Randy Johnson.  But Johnson’s not exactly the pitcher he used to be. What’s your feeling about the Diamondback rotation overall heading into the stretch run?

Jim: Johnson has been a second-half revelation. Many people expected him to flag, or be skipped occasionally to keep him fresh, but he hasn’t missed a game all year - and has a 1.82 ERA, with a K:BB ratio of 53:7, in eight starts since the All-Star Game. He seems to have benefited from a side session he threw during the break, under the eye of pitching coach Tom House. Can he keep it up? Well, he could double that post-break ERA and still be a formidable #3. Personally, I’m more concerned about Doug Davis, who may be wearing down - understandably - after having his cancerous thyroid removed in April, or Yusmeiro Petit and his amazing .195 BABIP.

The Dodgers offense, even with Ramirez, is scuffling badly. The series opener against the Nationals made it eight consecutive games scoring three runs or less, tying an NL season-high. Is there a particular cause? And, perhaps more importantly for LA, a cure?

Jon: They’re slumping, slumping badly. This is a challenged offensive team, reliant for the most part on stringing hits together, but clearly, if this is some record-high streak of ineptitude in the NL for 2008, it’s not the Dodgers’ usual behavior. They are leaving runners on base rather than not getting them on in the first place, which is usually a sign that a team isn’t hopeless at the plate.  So the cure is time.  Whether that cure will come soon enough, or with enough time remaining in the schedule, I don’t know.

And yet, there’s Arizona, with a chance to go four up in the division, letting San Diego knock out Webb. Neither of these teams can really seem to get their act together.  Webb losing is obviously a fluke, but what is the Diamondbacks’ biggest worry?

Jim: If anything is going to sink us, it’s the bullpen. They have a second-half ERA of 5.34, and an 0-8 record after July 10. I’ve a nasty feeling manager Bob Melvin blew out Brandon Lyon’s arm by using him in hard, back-to-back-to-back outings just after the break: his ERA before that was 2.43, but balloons to 12.75 since. Any apparent resulting lack of blown saves is largely because we’ve only had three in August - and Lyon had to be bailed out in one of those. While Melvin still professes confidence in his closer, I have little, and set-up man Jon Rauch, with his 6.19 ERA for us, isn’t much more inspiring. We have good relievers - Juan Cruz and Tony Peña have generally been solid recently - but Melvin apparently dislikes using them in high-leverage situations for some reason.

Enough gloom and depression! Who - presumably outside of Manny - do you expect to step up and carry the Dodgers through the last month of the season?

Jon: Aside from Ramirez, I think it’s really going to be up to the younger non-rookies - Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loney and even Russell Martin, though he has logged more than 1,000 innings behind the plate, to have enough left to carry the offense. It’s getting to be too late for Rafael Furcal to have much of an impact, though perhaps he might be able to offer occasional help off the bench in September. But overall, I think the key to the Dodgers winning will have to be pitching depth. Though Los Angeles can’t match Arizona ace-for-ace, the Dodgers do have a solid staff top-to-bottom. There have been some blown saves, but I’m still confident in the group overall. I’m really hoping they can keep the muzzle on opponents in September.

And who will be Arizona’s heroes, should they have heroes?

Jim: Justin Upton should return, and certainly has the chance - if he can regain his April form, where he batted 327/.372/.554. It’s a big “if” however, since he hit below .200 after that. Third-baseman Mark Reynolds is notoriously streaky, so could get hot down the stretch too. But it’s the rotation that has taken Arizona this far, and it’ll be them that we need to keep us in games. In particular, I’d love to see Davis come through with some clutch performances: it’d be the ultimate feel-good story of the season, to go from being diagnosed with cancer to leading his team into the playoffs.

Looking into the post-season, how do you think the Dodgers would match-up against the other contenders? Who do you fear most?

Jon: I mostly fear the television industry making fun of the Dodgers even being in the postseason.  I can’t even think about potential Dodger playoff opponents.  I just know that the pitching staff would have to come up huge, and the Dodgers would basically just need to get some of the luck that has eluded them since 1988.

Jim: I look forward to the ESPN angst if LA or AZ make the playoffs, and the Yankees don’t, despite a better record! I feel the same about Arizona’s chances - but once you reach the playoffs, the first 162 games become meaningless. That’s probably the biggest thing either of our teams have in their favor.

Record: 68-65. Pace: 83-79. Change on last season: -6
Magic number: 28. Playoffs odds: 69.4% [both pending LA game]

Getting the Lolback of the Week up here early. Recap to follow - whenever I feel psychologically capable of rehashing the coroner’s report on this one.

Brandon Webb RHP, 19-4, 2.74

Chad Reineke RHP, 1-1, 4.91

Baseball-Reference.com preview [opens in new window]

Welcome to the big leagues, Chad Reineke. Not only is your second-ever appearance against the man who won the 2006 Cy Young, was second last year, and is the favorite this season…but your third appearance sees you facing the same guy. For your next start, I believe the cloning of an entire line-up of Babe Ruths for you to face, should be just about completed. Have fun.

Reineke didn’t acquit himself badly last time, with a quality start and three runs over six innings. However, he might as well have been spitting at a supernova, because he was facing Brandon Webb, who delivered seven shutout innings of three-hit ball, on the way to his sixth straight victory. If he makes it seven tonight, he’ll become only the second National League pitcher this year to reel off some many W’s in a row. The first was also Brandon Webb - nine wins to start the year [as well as two at the end of 2007].

So, I feel pretty confident, as long as a) our offense doesn’t totally suck, and b) the bullpen are willing to hold off extending their seven-week losing streak for another game. Neither are, admittedly, certain. I’m at IZW, so will be able to comment during the game, just not watch it. Azreous is on the recap, unless something totally heinous takes place, causing me to forget and write a blistering screed of criticism. Chip Hale, you have been warned. Dodgers have just started playing in Washington, so let’s get this up early and hope they continue to suck, every bit as much as they did in Philadelphia.

Brandon Webb for President?

This is slightly delayed, due to the scheduled SB Nation maintenances from last night - well-spotted by Charmer, so I was at least able to pop a warning into the Gameday Thread. Here’s the diary of my thoughts, as the game unfolded last night.

Settling in, ready for our last comedy show of the summer at the Grand Comedy Tavern. Listening to the radio on our way here: it sounds like the Dodgers were losing to the Phillies, but I’m awaiting confirmation on that. It’d be helpful.

1st inning. Drew pops up foul, on a full count, but Young walks: a good start, it doesn’t seem like Peavy is blowing anybody away. Looks like a hit-and-run with Jackson, which avoids the double-play. Dunn works the count full, and I’d have said he got hosed by the umpire on strike three. Ah, the out of town scoreboard shows the Dodgers did lose, 5-0. Interesting inning for Haren. There’s a one out double, and the runner advances to third on a ground-out. He then gets Adrian Gonzalez on three strikes: looked like they were all fastballs, respectively high, higher and a threat to passing aircraft.

2nd inning. 1-2-3 go the Diamondbacks, with Reynolds staring at strike three, which looked largely down the pipe to me.  He seems to have been K-ing even more than usual of late, and I don’t recall many homers recently, but I’d have to check that. [Confirmed: he’s homerless in 59 at-bats since August 7, with 22 K’s] Haren struggles a bit in the second, allowing two hits: he doesn’t seem to be getting the call on balls down in the zone, though the umpire has a more generous zone inside to left-handers. He gets Peavy to ground out, and the threat is averted. So far, advantage Peavy: despite the scoreless game, he has looked better.

3rd inning. Haren tries to help his own cause with a single: he handles the bat better than any other pitcher we have and, personally, I like seeing his at-bats. He hardly ever gives his out away. I didn’t seem much else of the inning, thanks to my weekly comics discussion with our comedy host: this week, the multi-threaded narrative which is The Watchmen. Nothing else happens for the Diamondbacks, and the Padres threaten again with a leadoff base-runner in the bottom of the third. Haren is falling behind a lot of the hitters, and this eventually bites him, a double to the outfield giving San Diego the lead. But the following hitters help out by swinging at balls in the dirt, and the damage is stopped there.

4th inning. Need to get the offense going. Jackson starts things off well, with a single to right. He takes second as Dunn fans on a full-count, and is in scoring position with one out for the D-backs. Tracy strikes out - the middle of the line-up is something of a K-hasm of late. Reynolds legs out an infield hit, and leaves it up to Snyder. He puts a long at-bat on Peavy - if nothing else, we’re running his pitch-count up very nicely - and finally sends a 2-2 pitch back up the middle, scoring both men, Reynolds having stolen second earlier in the at-bat. Hard pounding, but we finish our half of the inning with a 2-1 lead. We need Haren to post a zero, but with two out and a man on first, another bloop single drops down the right-field line, moving the runner to third, and a hit ties the game.

5th inning. Nothing for Arizona. Absolutely nothing. Not much for San Diego either: he faces three batters, but doesn’t quite manage a 1-2-3 inning, with another hit. A double-play ends that, and we rapidly move on to the…

6th inning. Jackson strikes out, but replays confirms that Peavy gets a very generous strike zone. That isn’t enough to help him against The Treadmill, who does what he does and gets on base with a free pass. Tracy pops up, so nothing doing there and while Reynolds works the count full, he grounds out and the score remains tied. Four runs over a total of eleven innings for these pitchers: rather different from last week’s encounter. Haren then makes it 12, and looks impressive in doing so, with his first 1-2-3 inning of the night.

7th inning. Peavy gone: that’s a relief, and I think we’re happy that he has left the game, and we are still level. No victory for him, but Haren is still in the game, batting for himself with two outs. Another fine at-bat there, and he drills a double to left-center for his second hit of the game. The Padres end up walking Drew intentionally, and Young has the big chance to put Arizona ahead again. However, he flies out, and the chance goes begging. Haren wanders from second to the mound. He is mowing them down and accumulates a season-high 11 strikeouts, around a single by Giles. I think the upcoming inning is probably his last chance of victory.

8th inning. Heath Bell in for the Padres: I am prepared to sacrifice my fantasy team for the good of the Diamondbacks, and let Bell concede a run. However, he refuses to co-operate, retiring Jackson, Dunn and Tracy without any major problems. Doesn’t look like either starter will be involved in the decision: and given the last time our bullpen won a game was roughly back in the early Stone Age, I’m not exactly confident. Pena is up and his first pitch is slapped to right for a single, ending his hitless streak.

Drew then bobbles a potential double-play ball, and everyone is safe. Hoffman is warming in the Padres ‘pen… We need a K, but instead a deep fly advances the runners to second and third: Reynolds thought he’d applied the tag. An intentional walk loads the bases, and this appears to be the game, right here. Nowhere to put him… Pena falls behind 2-0, but comes back to get a groundball to Drew, who doesn’t muff this one and the game remains tied. On into the ninth, with everything to play for.

9th inning. The Padres have outhit us 10-5, which is pretty much how the first couple of games went last series: given the results there, that’s not necessarily a problem. Hoffman is in for the ninth, the Padres going for the win at home, and Arizona has no luck against the all-time saves leader, being retired in order. Rauch in for the Diamondbacks: Hairston up as a pinch-hitter for the Padres. Rauch wins. An attempted bunt is thrown away by Reynolds, but the rebound off the fence is fortuitously straight back to Tracy, who gets the runner at second. That’s particularly lucky, as the next runner singles, which would have scored the winning run.

However, Jody Gerut, who has killed the Diamondbacks utterly this year [now 12-for-28 with 3 HR and 6 RBI], renders it moot, hammering the first pitch into the bleachers for a walk-off home-run. Rauch gets the loss - apparently time to add him to the list of relievers we can’t trust in a close game - our bullpen sinks to 0-7 since July 10, and Haren’s solid outing is wasted, thanks to a lack of offense. But we remain three ahead of the Dodgers, one game better than we were on Friday, even though we have won only once since then.

[Click to enlarge, in new window]
Master of his domain: Dan Haren, +20.2%
Honorable mention: Peña, +11.0%; Snyder, +10.4%
God-emperor of suck: Jon Rauch, -35.7%
Dishonorable mentions: Tracy, -13.7%; Ojeda, -11.5%, Young, -10.3%

In 16 games since coming to Arizona, Rauch now has a 6.00 ERA - mostly because he has allowed five home-runs in only 15 innings of work, responsible for seven out of the ten earned runs he has allowed. In particular, in six games since August 13th, with an admittedly small sample-size, his line is:
   Rauch: 5.2 IP, 11 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 4 HR, ERA 12.71, 0-3 record
We’ve lost three of the six games in which he has appeared: Rauch has taken the L in every one of those. I think I speak for most of us when I say we would rather not see him or Lyon appearing in contests we have any chance of winning at the moment. They should be consigned strictly to mop-up work, with Qualls and Peña being used in high-leverage situations. Particularly when Gerut is at the plate. 

Not had a chance to catch up on the Gameday Thread yet - by the time I got home last night, SB Nation was already down for maintenance. Seemed pretty busy though, so thanks to those who participated: soco, DbacksSkins, kishi, unnamedDBacksfan, emilylovesthedbacks, snakecharmer, Gravity, singaporedbacksfan, utahdbacksfan, Muu, TwinnerA, foulpole, srdmad, Scrbl, 4 Corners Fan, AJforAZ, Stile4aly, mrssoco, jaydubsped [welcome!] and Azreous.

Another quality start lost - I’ve given up counting how many of those we’ve had. However, facing Peavy was definitely the game I thought we were most likely to lose in the series, and I think we will still come back today with Webb and get him his 20th win, then take the series behind Johnson on Wednesday.

Dan Haren RHP, 14-6, 3.12

Jake Peavy RHP, 9-9, 2.84

Baseball-Reference.com preview [opens in new window]

After the slugfest that erupted last time these two met, I’m not going to go out and predict a pitching duel tonight. It will be interesting to see how the two pitchers - and Haren in particular - adjust their game-plan as a result of the encounter. Our man thought that the Padres were going up with the intent of being aggressive early in the count, looking for fastballs, so don’t be surprised to see him throw a lot more first-pitch breaking balls. Of course, the hitters could well be looking for those now, so… etc. etc.  Such is the joy of baseball! Gravity already posted his preview of the game as a Fanpost, and that pretty much says everything else I need to, so let’s turn the mic over to him:

Week 21 Results

AZ SnakePit 2, dbacktom 6
Tied going into Sunday, tom pulled ahead to give themselves a good chance of playoff baseball and all but end SnakePit’s chances. Santana had 19 K’s for them and Arredondo two vulture wins. Shoppach had three HR for Snake.

Douchebaggery 6, SHUperMen 3
Douche kept hopes of a late rush into the post-season alive with another victory: DeRosa homered four times, as they swept all the pitching categories, Schumaker driving in eight. SHU did fight back on pitching [Looper, W+7 K] but too late.

The Fighting Amish 5, Blonde Streaks 4
Amish look all but set for playoff action, though it was a tough win - Gregg’s Sunday save proving the deciding factor in this contest. Pena drove in seven, and they also got a team ERA of 1.48, but Blonde had Sabathia (W + 14 K),

Tucson Myth 5, Wimboes Barmy Army 3
This result eliminated both teams, but Myth took the victory, behind Hernandez (two HR, 6 RBI). Nolasco (two wins, 21 K’s) dominated pitching for Wimboes, but neither side managed a save, and they scored just 32 runs combined.

7-2 Offsuiters 7, Arizona Muugens 3
7-2 locked up a post-season spot, but will have to wait to see whether they earn a first-round bye. They got three HR from Cabrera and Bay, plus two wins and two saves from Wilson. Muugens got 13 K from Johnson, but won’t make the playoffs.

Adriano Rosario’s 10, Desert Storm BC 0
In a rare complete sweep, Rosario clinched the playoffs, and Storm imploded: slumoing from sixth to fourteenth in three weeks. Adriano got four HR from Swisher, hit .320 and had a 1.66 ERA, Harden providing two Wins and 21 K’s.

Crazy VIII’s 5, Desert Dingleberries 4
This near-stalemate helped neither team much, both needing a big victory to boost their hopes. The sides hit exactly the same, at .293, but two homers from Beltran helped VIII. Desert got a W and 20 K from Burnett, while F-Rod [VIII] saved three.

Kapsaicin Kids 1, Ignatius J. Rallies 8
Rallies kept the flame alive with a convincing victory, climbing to ninth. Sizemore drove in ten and stole four bases, Teixeira homerd three times and Buerhle provided a W and 10 K. Fuentes’ two saves gave Kids their only point.

Shenanigans 2.0 4, GregSchulteOverdrive 4
Greg look likely to see the playoffs, but it’s not certain after being held to a draw by Shen. They dominated hitting, Ramirez with three HR and 11 RBI, but Shen were just as good on the mound, Slovey with a W and 17 K’s. BA and Sv were tied.

last place 4, warlords 5
First vs. last, but it was closer than expected, and it took Harris’ three homers to give war a split in HR and overall victory. last hit well, getting six runs and two HR from Quentin, but war pitched well, a W and nine K each from Halladay and Myers.

Standings

Week 22 Games

AZ SnakePit vs. The Fighting Amish
Douchebaggery vs. dbacktom
Tucson Myth vs. Blonde Streaks
7-2 Offsuiters vs. Wimboes Barmy Army
Adriano Rosario’s vs. Arizona Muugens
Crazy VIII’s vs. Desert Storm BC
Kapsaicin Kids vs. Desert Dingleberries
Shenanigans 2.0 vs. Ignatius J. Rallies
last place vs. GregSchulteOverdrive
warlords vs. SHUperMen

douchebaggery vs dbacktom is the ESPN Game of the Week, pitting the sixth-placed team against the seventh - Douche need to win by at least five points to overtake tom, and likely snatch a playoff spot. They are surging, having gone 15-4 in the past two weeks, while tom are 7-9 and will be looking for contributions from their trio of 20-HR men, Thome, Ankiel and Bradley. Douche have 28 from Fielder, but will look to Pelfrey to get them off to a good start tonight.

As we head into the final stretch of the season, let’s take a look at the remaining schedules for ourselves and the Dodgers. At first glance, it looks like Los Angeles have a much easier run of things - here are the schedules, first the Diamondbacks and then the enemy, along with the current winning-percentages of their respective opponents.

At first glance, it looks like the Dodgers have a clear edge here: once they leave Philadelphia, their only remaining series against a winning team are the two versus Arizona. They also have nine against the Padres, compared to our three, and also get to enjoy three games facing the Nationals, so have a dozen contests against the worst two teams in the league.

However, one important thing to note is the Dodgers have almost two-thirds of their games on the road: we need to evaluate not only who teams are facing, but where those games take place. So, let’s revise the above charts, splitting the series by home and away, and giving the appropriate winning percentage of the opponent, at home or away. As an example, the first two lines below are therefore the St. Louis winning percentage on the road, for the games they play in Arizona, and then at home for the games we have there.

Here, the gap in the strength of schedule is reduced significantly. Our schedule isn’t much altered - it’s reduced only by .002, since eight out of our remaining ten series are the results of home-and-away pairings, largely negating ground advantage. However, Los Angeles have fewer series like that: in particular, the Dodgers instead have to travel to Colorado and Pittsburgh, without getting to play them back in Chavez Ravine.

That is important because the Rockies and Pirates are teams that are well below .500 overall, yet both are considerably stronger [their W-L is 11 games better in each case] at home, and have winning records on their own turf. That skews the Dodgers’ remaining games harder than it seems by looking at just the overall W-L, and basically cuts their advantage almost in half. The Dodgers are also nine games worse on the road than at home, compared to the Diamondbacks figure of only minus six, so having them travel in the final month appears to work in our favor too. All told, they have a slight advantage, but it only works out to about 0.7 games over the rest of the schedule.

The series over the weekend was huge. Los Angeles had a golden opportunity to catch up, maybe pull to within one game of Arizona. But instead, even though we lost our own series, we still extended the division lead, thanks to the Dodgers being within one out of victory last night, yet being unable to close out the win. Equally as important, that’s another three games crossed off the schedule - as the leading team, every day that passes where they don’t catch up, works in our favor. We came in with playoff odds of 63.8% and left at 72.9%: not bad, given we only won once in the three games.

Coming up, the series from Friday to Monday against LA obviously looms large. Before then, the Dodgers have to face the Phillies one last time tonight, in a game that should be over, or all but, before we take the field for our series in San Diego. We and they then face very similar series: three games on the road against cellar-dwellers, before the key clash at Chase. We have an off-day Thursday, and that will help us align our rotation going in: the week sees two starts each by Haren and Webb, and that gives me confidence we can extend our lead in the next seven days.

As a prediction, I expect the Phillies to complete the sweep tonight over a demoralized Dodgers. LA and AZ will then have similar results in their next series - both winning two against or possibly sweeping their opponents. Then comes the key series at Chase. I’d settle for us taking two of three there, which would bring us to this point next week in possession of a 4.5 game lead, with the Dodgers having 25 games left, and the Diamondbacks 26. That would be entirely satisfactory, but you know what baseball is like, and anything could happen…

Record: 68-62. Pace: 85-77. Change on last season: -5
Magic number  [pending Dodgers result] 31. Playoff odds: TBA

It’s startling to see that the Marlins are only third in the NL East, as their performances against us this year have been an impressive blend of hitting and pitching [though their defense could benefit from some help]. The Florida victory today finished off their third series win in 2008 against the Diamondbacks, to run the overall season record against us to 7-2. I think I speak for all of our fans, when I express some pleasure that we probably won’t see them again until 2009.

Today, it was Ricky Nolasco who continued his domination of Arizona, picking up his third victory in three attempts against us this season. He will be sorry not to face us again, completing the season versus the Diamondbacks with the following line:
    Nolasco: 22.1 IP, 12 H, 4 BB, 4 R, 4 ER, 26 K, 1.61 ERA
Having won the World Series in both 1997 and 2003, I think the Marlins have an excellent chance of continuing their six-year cycle, if Nolasco pitches against everyone else like he did against us in 2008.

Today, we managed only a total of four hits, two coming off the bat of Stephen Drew, who homered to tie the game up, leading off for Arizona in the bottom of the first, then doubled in the sixth, scoring our other run on a ground-out off the bat of Conor Jackson. Jackson also got our third hit against Nolasco, doubling in the first, but he was stranded, along with Tony Clark, as Reynolds went down swinging for the first of three times against Nolasco. It was not a great day for the middle of our order: Adam Dunn, Clark and Reynolds combined to go 0-for-10 with eight strikeouts. Dunn struggled throughout the series, going 2-for-12 with one walk and six K’s, but that feast or famine approach is largely what we expected.

Doug Davis struggled early on, allowing runs in the first and second inning, but then settled down somewhat from there, as is not uncommon for him. He ended up going seven innings and giving us another quality start, with three earned runs on seven hits. He walked none and struck out eight, impressive figures there, and deserved a better fate than to have his record run to 5-8. It was good to see Juan Cruz come in for the eighth, and struck out two men in his inning of work, round a single.

However, the question marks about Brandon Lyon’s position as the closer remain, or indeed, are likely intensified. He was asked to come in for the ninth inning, keep it a one-run game, and give our power hitters the chance to tie the game up with one swing of the bat. He failed badly, allowing three extra-base hits to the Marlins, though in his defense, one of those was misplayed badly in right-field by Dunn. That resulted in two runs, making our situation in the  bottom of the ninth a great deal more desperate than it had been going into the top of the inning. Lyon’s line in thirteen games since the All-Star break is now:
    Lyon: 12 IP, 27 H, 4 BB, 18 R, 17 ER, 8 SO, ERA 12.75

You will understand why I say that there is no way Lyon should be allowed into the ninth inning of a game where we are leading. Opponents are batting .429 against Lyon in five weeks of the second-half of the season. Apparently, “Melvin remains confident in ‘pen” - he must be about the only one - and is not planning to change his relief strategy, saying “You need these guys, and you have to show confidence in them.” It’s bizarre how he is such a big fan of the ‘hot hand’ as far as placing hitters into games goes: see the recent fondness for using Miguel Montero. But he refuses to acknowledge that relief pitchers can have similar streaks - though in the case of Lyon, we appear to be dealing with something much more fundamental.

Arizona had a bit of a chance in the ninth inning, with Young singling and Dunn walking - after looking to bunt his way on with the first pitch. That was an impressive piece of baseball smarts given the huge defensive shift meant that anything at all towards third-base would have allowed him to stroll onto the bag. However, having worked the count full, Tony Clark was fooled utterly by a Gregg breaking ball, about two foot inside off the plate, and missed it by a country mile - only the worst of some truly ugly hacks by Diamondbacks’ hitters this afternoon. Reynolds popped out to second, ending the game and the series. I knew it was a mistake to have the wife of an opposing player throw out the first pitch, Olympic gold-medalist or not…

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Master of his domain: Stephen Drew, +12.8%
God-emperor of suck: Mark Reynolds, -14.3%
Dishonorable mentions: Lyon, -12.4%; Clark, -12.2%; Ojeda, -10.7%

Solid Gameday Thread, with normal service being resumed after yesterday’s skeleton service. Today, it almost reached 500 comments, despite the  less than appealing final resut. Present today were: TwinnerA, snakecharmer, DbacksSkins, foulpole, unnamedDBacksfan, srdmad, soco, hotclaws, emilylovesthedbacks, utahdbacksfan, mrssoco, Gravity [welcome - now you have to come back tomorrow, to prove this wasn’t your fault!], Azreous, kishi and 4 Corners Fan.

Play is under way in Philadelphia, with the Dodgers trying to claw their way back to two games behind us. After two innings, they are 1-0 up: it’s on ESPN as their Sunday night game, so for once we’ll be able to follow this one without having to hit the ‘Refresh’ button quite so hard on Gameday! For Arizona, they make the short flight to San Diego, and will be hoping to repeat last week’s success by sweeping the Padres: with the top of our rotation going there, I have to feel confident, even if we do face Peavy again tomorrow. I’m working on a piece looking at the schedules faced by us and the Dodgers down the stretch, so that should go up there tomorrow.

Record: 68-61. Pace: 85-77. Change on last season: -4
Magic number: 31. Playoff odds 73.8%

Much, much better. That was a huge improvement in just about every way: our starting pitching went from good to excellent, the bullpen locked it down, we tacked on extra runs when necessary and the defense was rock-solid. All this and a Dodgers loss: how could the day have got any better?

Well, you can add seeing it with a really great bunch of people, as DBBP/SnakePitFest ‘08 was a roaring success I think. We sat in Sliders’ for three hours before the game, doling out fifty or so tickets to all those who’d signed up: some people went to the Q+A with Josh Byrnes before the game, but others showed up steadily until almost first pitch. Sympathy in particular to the Tucson crew, as the traffic from there was, by all accounts, utterly dreadful, but they [mostly] made it here just in time, albeit not in time to get their Eric Byrnes bobbleheads. We did, with Mrs. SnakePit debating whether or not to apply a Band-Aid to its knees…

As well as our 80’s attire, Mrs. SnakePit had acquired red pom-poms for everyone, and they proved remarkably popular in our section: we were spread over fragments of eight rows, but it proved remarkably sociable, people moving back and forth to chat. It was particularly great to put some new names to faces: Wesley, Phil, Ann and Emily, as well as all those I already knew, too numerous to mention. We were screaming like mad fools: insanity has power in numbers it seems.

We did check in on the Pit, thanks to Chris’s new phone, but couldn’t work out how to login and post. Still, we did a roll-call of the posters for those present at the park! Fun, fun times: we really should do it again, but I doubt it’s going to be this season. “We should get a suite next time,” said Mrs. SnakePit. Hey, mortgage payments: they’re vastly over-rated. I’m sure those with cameras will post their embarrassing pics in due course. Till then, you’ll have to make do with this text recap of the game.

The Petit Unit continues to defy all statistical expectations, reducing his already-insane WHIP with six innings of two-hit ball against his old team [I wonder what Jorge Julio is doing these days? Ah, pitching in the minors for the Braves], walking none and striking out six. The only damage allowed was a solo home-run to Hanley Ramirez, leading off the fourth: he was helped out by an amazing defensive play later in that inning from Special K, diving to one side, then throwing out Cantu from his knees. Yusmeiro has now allowed 31 hits and seven walks in 47.2 innings, and consideration has to be given to skipping Doug Davis in the rotation rather than Petit.

Since the All-Star break, Petit’s ERA is 2.73 in 33 innings, while DD’s is 6.49 in 34.2: it may be harsh to say it, but I know who I have more confidence in right now. One wonders if articles like this one - D-Backs’ Davis battling stiff back - mean that the ground is being prepared for him to take a back seat. Apparently, there was so much ‘concern’ on Thursday that the club pulled Scherzer from his scheduled start for the Sidewinders, in case he was needed to play here tomorrow. That now appears to be unlikely, but the article reckons we will add someone like Billy Buckner to the roster tomorrow, in case Davis has to get the quick hook.

Yusmeiro could probably have continued further - he’d thrown only 77 pitches - but was pulled for a pinch-hitter in the bottom of the sixth, after the Marlins intentionally walked Augie Ojeda to get to the pitcher’s spot with one out. I suspect they perhaps didn’t expect Melvin to pull Petit out at that point, but it proved a good decision, Clark delivering an RBI groundout and Drew tacking on another run with a single. The play that led to the intentional walk was a double by Montero, with Mark Reynolds being held at third. Amusingly, there was some discontent in the crowd at that decision, but our section cheered enthusiastically Chip Hale’s rediscovery of the ‘Stop’ sign!

After Petit, we say Qualls and Pena for the next two innings, and then Rosales in the ninth, after we’d blown the game open with three runs in the bottom of the eighth: Q and P both struck out two in their inning of work. Pestileñce is looking very, very good of late, not having allowed a hit in 5.2 innings: he made an adjustment to his delivery, landing a little softer on his left leg. This had been reducing the movement on his slider, with the results we’d seen. Now, he’s back in full effect: Qualls, too, is pitching very well after a rocky spell up to the All-Star break. Since then, he has a 1.29 ERA, having allowed two runs in 14 innings.

Someone we haven’t seen much of is Juan Cruz, who has been all but shut down since that game on August 9, where his errant throw to second resulted in the loss of Hudson for the rest of the year. His one appearance in the two weeks since was the final inning of a 12-2 blowout. Melvin, however, denies there has been any real change or that Cruz is blacklisted in some way, pointing out that Juan was warming up, more than once, during Doug Davis’s last outing. We might get to see the truth of that tomorrow, when DD takes the mound.

The offense came through early, Adam Dunn driving in a run during the first inning to give the Diamondbacks an early lead. After Ramirez had tied it up with his solo long-ball, Arizona answered the same way in the fifth, Chris Young nailing his eighteenth of the season to left. As noted above, we added two more runs in the bottom of the sixth, and another solo homer, this one by Montero, was followed in the eighth by RBI for Salazar and Young, to pad the lead. Drew, Young, Dunn, Tracy and Montero each had two hits, while Ojeda reached safely three times, on a hit, a walk and his team-leading ninth HBP of the season. All round, an excellent game, that was enjoyable from the beginning to the end.

Game Notes

• The biggest cheer of the night was for Misty May-Treanor, who was there to see her husband, the backup Marlins catcher - and, in particular, for the gold medal she yanked out of her shirt. I almost expected Augie, his next time up, to pull out his bronze medal from the 1996 baseball, just because…
• Basically a full house tonight, at 44,294, and there was a surprisingly-large queue at the gates before they opened - more than two hours before first pitch. A lot of people seemed to be going in, getting the bobble-heads and then leaving again, which makes sense, as I couldn’t really imagine waiting inside the park for so long. Batting practice might be fun to watch though.
• I particularly enjoyed how they celebrated 80’s Night by splicing the Diamondbacks players into various movie posters and record sleeves from that decade: everything from The Terminator [Conor Jackson] to the Thriller cover [Chris Young]. Wish there was somewhere we could download those from!
• Also enjoyed them playing Devo’s iconic Whip It video, intercut with the team’s best plays of the season. Been a fan of theirs for the best part of 25 years now: never thought I’d see them on the Jumbotron at Chase!
• Speaking of which, by special request from the Diamondbacks, we kept mrssoco away from the large screen, just in case of a repeat incident - which in this case, would probably have resulted in the death by crushing of our center fielder…
• When the game finished, we chanted ‘Three games up! Three games up!’ and reprised the chant when they put the Dodgers score on the screen. That may have been the most satisfying moment of the whole night.

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Master of his domain: Yusmeiro Petit, +25.0%
Honorable mentions: Young, +16.9%; Dunn, +14.7%
God-emperor of suck: Conor Jackson, -8.4%

For obvious reasons - like everyone being at the game! - this was a pretty quiet Gameday Thread, but thanks to those who took part before, during and after the game. That  would be: snakecharmer, britdback, Counsellmember, foulpole [though since it seems he won’t be reading this, I don’t know why I bother…], Scrbl, hotclaws, srdmad, soco, 4 Corners Fan, TwinnerA, Omar21, njjohn, SongBird, mrssoco, Captain D Bag and Bcawz.

And tomorrow, we go for another series win. But I’m going to go to bed now, and sleep off the effects of too much beer and junk food! Thanks again to everyone who showed up, and helped make the event such a success. Good times. Good times…